The Cross Strait Times

As I write this, the PRC is sending its navy to the coast of Somalia, to do its part in contributing to the stability of the global community. I think it’s refreshing that Beijing, usually isolationist, is stepping up to take on more of the world’s responsibilities. Surely, part of the PRC’s motivation must come from self-interest. The Red Sea is a valuable trade link connecting East Asia with Europe, and rerouting ships around Africa means using more fuel and reaping fewer profits. But it is from knowing one’s self-interest can one be aware of the interests of others. As the PRC wants to be a regional power, by contributing to the anti-piracy fight it is starting to use its power responsibly. A small step, but at least it’s been taken.

Charter 08 by now is probably old news to anyone reading this blog. I admire their outspokenness and agree that democracy must come to China. Interestingly, only one arrest so far has happened as a result of 300 intellectuals signing this document. Perhaps Beijing has learned that withholding the iron fist prevents PR disasters, but it’s also led to a lot more people being unafraid to come out in support of the controversial document.

The other side: a leftist argument calling for the maintenance of a Communist “tutelage” (quotes mine) until Chinese civil society is ready for democracy. The link brings up real problems with civil society in Taiwan, but I don’t think it really should stop democracy from being implemented. The idea that young democracy and an inexperienced electorate could be hijacked by fascists, however, is a legitimate concern.

Is democracy in the Mainland inevitable? I will say some form of “freer government” definitely is. That is, if the current regime intends to continue trade further its ambitions of making the PRC a global player. Naysayers who think that China will remain authoritarian “forever” while becoming a major economic and trading world power tend to forget their history and geography.

• Island and peninsular countries with long coastlines and busy, open ports are susceptible to new ideas with people freely going in and out, relying on businesses and a multitude of institutions that keep government in check. As a result, these countries become progressive and free thinking due to economic competition and the free flow of ideas (e.g., Western Europe).
• Landlocked countries (or countries with frozen coastlines) are less likely to have people move freely and exchange ideas because transportation limitations don’t allow it. Government becomes the main authority of reliance because trade and wealth generation is harder without trade ports. As a result, the country trends towards authoritarianism (e.g., Russia).

What does this say about China? China has a long eastern coastline and the rest is bound by land, mostly mountains and desert. This results in what tdaxp calls a “red-blue divide” that people in the US are probably familiar with [1]. New ideas are constantly coming into China through trade, making democracy, or something like it, pretty much inevitable. The only way the Communist Party can prevent the spread of democratic ideals is by shutting off China from the rest of the world in an imitation of North Korea. Doing so will destroy China’s and the world’s economy, plummeting the Chinese people into poverty and obviating the Communists’ source of governmental legitimacy. Of course, such a scenario will never happen. The Communists may want to hold onto their power, but they are not stupid. China must engage the world through trade and politics to become the great power that its leaders want China to be. Geography is destiny, and the Communist Party will have to manage a democratic transition.

How to manage the transition?

I propose that the CCP actually groom an opposition party into existence to ensure a stable back-and-forth handover between parties. There are two ways to go about this. One is to turn the factions within the CCP into de facto parties with separate names that people can vote for. The other is to build up the KMT as an alternative party by making the Revolutionary Committee of the KMT the mainland branch of Taiwan’s KMT. As evidenced by the forums between the CCP and KMT, the two parties are capitalistic and bureaucratic enough (and arguably, corrupt enough) to understand each other. The two can then set up a framework that passes the power between the two sides, easing China into a two-party system while preventing state collapse as seen in the former USSR and Qing Dynasty. Hopefully the eventual competition between the parties will grind the corruption out of both sides, but hey, a political party without corruption ain’t a party, right?

[1] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/08/14/russia-is-bad.html