Ma’s vindication and election dilemma
Hooray! It’s official: Ma’s been acquitted. However, I’ll admit that I don’t think he is entirely faultless, only that he was not singled out to be eliminated from the presidential race because he is the DPP’s greatest threat in 2008. I’ll also say that Ma’s not entirely out of the woods yet. The prosecutors seek to appeal the case to a higher court see if they can get Ma the second time around.
While the media often touts Ma Ying-jeou as the front runner for the 2008 election, I do worry that his supposed future victory is doubtful. Even a China Times poll has shown that a Hsieh-Su pairing against Ma-Siew could win by the slim majority (info via Michael Turton’s View from Taiwan).
As Sun Bin noted, Ma carries a lot of baggage from the old KMT that he had been so desperately trying to discard while reforming (with limited success) as party chairman. This baggage alienates the moderate voters that Ma needs to win 2008 and will continue to do so if Ma does not refute the KMT’s past misdeeds. Conversely, disowning the legacy of both Chiangs, Lien, and Soong would certainly also disappoint many Deep Blues.
Statistically speaking, the Deep Blues have a very reliable turnout during the elections. Even if the Deep Blues don’t like Ma’s policy changes, they have no one better to vote for. They certainly won’t vote DPP, and if they don’t vote, they know that it’ll mean another DPP administration for another 4 or 8 years. Therefore, I encourage that Ma make the needed changes ASAP in order for the KMT to come out as the party more likable to the moderates come election time.
Sure, the cross-island cycling tour was great publicity for Ma, but I think it would’ve been better if Ma went south to understand southern Taiwanese immediately after his resignation from the KMT chairmanship and bought an apartment in Tainan. It takes time to understand your potential constituents, and the election is only 8 months away.
The typical DPP scare tactic seems to be “if you vote KMT, they’ll sell Taiwan to the Communists!” Of course, such an accusation in laughable. The KMT has always and will continue to maintain that Taipei’s government is sovereign, named the Republic of China. The KMT will not sell Taiwan to the Communists because of the party’s pride, and how they see themselves as the true inheritors of Sun Yat-sen’s mission of democracy for everyone. Selling out Taiwan to an authoritarian PRC would be giving up Sun’s dream.
Most importantly, Ma has said that the KMT recognizes the right of the people on Taiwan to choose independence. From experience, everyone knows that Beijing will not talk to the DPP. Therefore, isn’t it in the best interest of even pro-independence supporters to elect Ma, someone who Beijing will actually talk to and also defend the right of the Taiwanese to choose their destiny?
Ma and the KMT need to assure the Taiwanese that the KMT’s return to power will not mean a return to authoritarianism. The KMT has realized the error of its past, even if it is still going through growing pains. Furthermore, a transfer of power between political parties ensures the deepening of democracy. The DPP has become complacent, as evidenced with the scandals of the First Family and the Cabinet. It is time for the DPP to go. Let them reflect on what they need to do to become a better party. Any party, no matter how noble its ideals, that holds onto power for too long inevitably becomes complacent about being accountable to the people, and will abuse their power with terrifying results. We don’t need the White Terror to be replaced only by Green Terror.
The recent fumbles made by the DPP gives the KMT a great strategic advantage. Blowing it because the KMT refuses to denounce the wrongs of the party’s past would be a real tragedy.
UPDATE (August 26, 2007): Poagao has an insightful piece on how the even though the 2008 election is Ma’s and the KMT’s to win, the DPP’s political savvy plus the KMT’s internal bickering and poor campaigning skills can still win the 2008 election for Hsieh.
